Blah Blah Budget

Well I didn't really write anything about the Budget. To be honest I found it all a bit blah.

Again with the not doing anything to reverse the 1991 benefit cuts, again with the not really doing anything except tinkering with funding in education and health. Four percent for school operation grants was a slap in the face, although it's been trumpeted by some as one of the significant parts of Michael Cullen's presentation - they seem ignorant of the fact that costs are running at higher than 4%, and support staff wages are so pitiful that even adding the full 4% on to their existing pay rates isn't going to give them the increases they deserve. I know I know, it's Better Than National, but it's not exactly vision stuff.

Maybe Kiwisaver is a bit of a Grand Scheme, but I have a sneaking suspicion it's just going to get wound up or fully privatised by a future National Government - particularly if they come in next year when it hasn't been aroundlong enough for people to feel attached to it. We do need to do something about our savings culture, but I'm not sure that a scheme that can be so easily converted to privatising superannuation is such a smart idea.

I heard John Tamihere talking on the radio the other day about the similar Super scheme that the 1972-1975 Labour Govt brought in - it was only in a short time before Muldoon was elected and scrapped it, giving people a one-off refund of their balance in the next tax year or something. I have no idea if that's true, and I'm too lazy to do any research (isn't that what readers are for? ;-) ) but given the way the polls are trending and the rhetoric from the Right about Kiwisaver, it seems like history may repeat itself.

I'm quite gloomy about the polls. I know it's not too late, and part of me would like to see Labour get a good kicking. But given that the boot would be on the end of John Key's leg, well that makes me not so keen.

Humph.

(Pic Via)

Candidate-itis

I wanted to write something about Gordon Copeland going all Splitsville, but it seems I'm a bit slow off the mark. Joe Hendren has written about possible caucus friction that may have been a motivation for Copeland, while Bryce Edwards has an interesting post on the history of Christian parties in NZ (and how many Christian MPs have been splitters). Maramatanga also looks at the possibilities for Copeland's possible new vehicle Future New Zealand*.

I always find it a bit amusing when List MPs with meagre profiles split from their party in high dudgeon and stomp off to play somewhere else. They don't seem to understand that not only are they leaving without bat and ball, they are also going to struggle to find anyone else who will actually share their game, or even watch it. It's a high level manifestation of an illness I've seen happen a lot in politics now - that strange political affliction known as Candidate-itis.

What seems to happen is that the person with the title (be it Student Exec Member, Councillor, Member of Parliament, whatever) thinks that they have somehow cultivated this massive personal following, often in a very short space of time and despite all evidence to the contrary. For some strange reason they have this delusion that there are a mass of students/ratepayers/voters/members prepared to die in a ditch for them. They think they can triumph righteously in an electoral contest which they have absolutely no chance of winning and they throw their perceived (and quite imaginary) power around no end, until it usually bounces back and hits them in the face right smartly.

Copeland strikes me as a man fervently in the grip of Candidate-itis. He and erstwhile United MP Larry Baldock seem to think that their devotees will rise up and smite their foes mightily at the ballot box. I see nothing to back up this crazy belief.

* Has anyone else noticed this is an existing party - it has been in some kind of political alliance with United for some years, creating United Future. Assumedly this means they have to disentangle themselves in terms of their party structures? Does anyone know if the Future NZ people are actually on board with the split?

(Pic Via)

Linky Love - Volume 17

Sorry this is so late - I've hardly been at a computer all week.

Standard intro - Linky Love is basically a cobbling together of posts I've noticed around the traps that have set off little tiny sparkles inside my head, and which I would possibly write about or comment on if I didn't need to sleep, eat, work, that kind of stuff. I usually put Linky Love volumes up weekly, on Friday mornings, although sometimes I sneak them in on Thursday for various reasons. I hope you like it.

As always if you have a post of your own, or some else's, that you'd like to highlight please feel free to add it in comments, or to discuss the above posts, or indeed most anything else.

Capitalism Bad - Eating disorders are about more than hating your appearance - Maia responds to a post by Hugo Schwyzer comparing eating disorders and veganism, and looks at the role that control and self-denial plays.

Feministe - Teen Girl Sex Scandal!! OhmiGod!! - Flea examines the annoying moral panics that frequently seem to spring up around the possibility of young women having sex.

Feministing - Hero of the Day: Erin Davies and her "fag bug" - Jessica reports on a homophobic vandalism that has had rather the opposite effect from what the tagger would have intended.

Ghetsuhm - Moooooo - Ghet posts about the cow-chicken-grass test, which I didn't just like cos I studied anthro.

LeftAlign - Terrorists I am scared of - LA writes about some scary scary people and the regular folks who support their views.

The Legal Soapbox - All's fair in love and law - Legal Eagle shares why she loves being a lawyer, and why the structure of legal work makes it hard for her to maintain that affection.

The Legal Soapbox - Managing up and down - LE gets a second nod for an insightful piece on managing that she wrote ages ago (before she shifted to wordpress) but I only just got around to finishing it.

Pandagon - Quality of whose life, again? - Chris Clarke has a fantastic post on the "patriarchal blindspot" some seem to have when advocating for change such as the Slow Movement. zuzu, also of Feministe, has written about her family's experiences in response.

Red in Roskill - Lessons for Labour - Michael Wood extrapolates a few things for Helen Clark and friends to take heed of, from the recent UK elections.

Salon - Tinky Winky says bye-bye to Jerry Falwell - The former teletubby breaks his silence on the death of the tele-evangelist who outted him.

WebWeaver's World - Smack no more! - ww shares her thoughts on the successful final vote on s59's repeal, and also has Sue Bradford's full Third Reading speech.

Previous volumes of Linky Love (1 - 16) can be found over here.

And finally, this week's Heart Pic is provided by Tze Ming Mok, of Yellow Peril fame, and was snapped at an art gallery in Shanghai recently. Thanks tm :-)

Linky Love - Volume 16

Standard intro - Linky Love is basically a cobbling together of posts I've noticed around the traps that have set off little tiny sparkles inside my head, and which I would possibly write about or comment on if I didn't need to sleep, eat, work, that kind of stuff. I usually put Linky Love volumes up weekly, on Friday mornings, although sometimes I sneak them in on Thursday for various reasons. I hope you like it.

As always if you have a post of your own, or some else's, that you'd like to highlight please feel free to add it in comments, or to discuss the above posts, or indeed most anything else.

Alas, a blog - Things You Learn About Race From a 7 Year Old - Rachel S on some revealing conversations with her partner's 7 year old son.

Brainstab - "Mortgage" means "death pledge" - Josh shares his thoughts on the endless treadmill of debt repayment he's now stuck on for all eternity.

Brainstab - STEP AWAY FROM DA LIGHT... - Apathy Jack reflects on Hoodrat High as his time working there comes to an end.

Capitalism Bad; Tree Pretty - What I actually think about voting - After ending up in an odd debate about the Democrats with a bunch of American feminist bloggers, Maia explains her views on elections.

DagCentral - The word is "Mexican" - In which the author talks about Mexicans as actual human beings, not the sub-humans the LAPD seemed to decide they were on May Day.

The Ex-Expat - The dark side of Asia - Musings from a Kiwi recently returned from living in Asia, and pointing out a few key points to consider when considering the fate of Cho Seung-Hui, formerly of Virginia Tech.

Feministe - AutoAdmit's Anthony Ciolli Loses Job Offer - Jill reports on what seems to be the final play in the nasty online harassment she faced on a law student bulletin board in the USA.

The Gossip - Measuring sustainability and happiness, not just growth - A guest post from CTU Economist Peter Conway about other ways to measure our success besides the purely economic.

Maramatanga - Draft electorate boundaries - Maramatanga has the best damn run-down of the draft changes that I've seen yet, handily broken down into parts of the country so you can find the area you care most about with ease.

No Right Turn - A victory for freedom to protest - Idiot/Savant reports on the Brooker decision and what it means for activists.

Pandagon - Systematic racism is over - Someone should tell the system - Auguste has a great post, beginning with a great cartoon, that points out the absurdity of the concept that traditional racist power structures have already been turned on their head.

Red Diaper Dharma - My Good Abortion - Parenting writer Ericka Lutz shares her story.

Sir Humphrey's - Das Alles Verdanken Wir Dem Fuehrer - Psycho Milt has a powerful post about the victims of war who aren't shot or injured on the frontlines, but raped in their own homes.

Stanselen - Answering to yourself - jo has a great post about being a woman and being a mother and staunchly not feeling she has to justify either.

Previous volumes of Linky Love (1 - 15) can be found over here.

(Pic Via) (And this is my favourite Linky Love pic to date!)

Here we go again

Ok, so I wrote about this already but it seems that a repeat attempt at explanation is necessary:

1. Only a very small number of unions are affiliated to the Labour Party. I can only think of four; EPMU (aka The Engineers), SFWU (Service & Food), Meatworkers and DWU (Dairy Workers). While EPMU and SFWU are amongst the bigger private sector unions these four are still couldn't reasonably be counted as "many unions" given that the whole NZ union movement encompasses over 33 unions (there are some not affiliated to the Council of Trade Unions and thus not on their list). If anyone has the skinny on any other unions, other than the four I listed, being affiliated to Labour, please comment now or forever hold your peace!

2. Many unions, and many union members, are public sector. Public sector unions do not affiliate to political parties and have policies of not giving donations to political parties either. Last I checked Labour was a political party, therefore they won't be getting any donations from those unions any time soon. That cuts out a lot of unions as possible donors under the current system.

3. Unions have to publish their accounts for their members, and as they are on the register of unions and often also incorporated societies there is auditing and so on that has to happen, just like (in fact probably more publicly) than companies. Any big dollops of union money being spent on stuff has to go through a democratic process, usually the union's Executive (or similar body) which is elected by the membership on a regular basis. They can't just secretly decide to give sizeable cheques to political parties without any membership scrutiny. It seems to be something that those without experience in unions struggle to understand - union members have a say in the running of their union, and hold its management accountable in ways that rarely happen in the corporate world. Those democratic structures aren't perfect, and many could be better, but they are there!

Okay, now that I've blurted all that out, yet again...

I'd also note that what everyone seems to be getting worked up about, when it comes to the proposals about changing the election funding laws*, has been put forward as something that is a million miles away from what has been reported.

The assumption in the broader blogosphere seems to be that unions will have an exemption from all the rules and can do whatever they please. The reality of the suggested change is that a funding cap would apply to third party campaigning (including unions and other organisations) and that the campaigning materials must be approved by the political party concerned. There would then be an exemption from this for organisations, including unions and companies (and no doubt others), for communications that they made directly to their membership. I imagine that there are several organisations that have memberships bigger than the biggest union, for example the AA, or one of the major banks, or Fonterra, or the University of Auckland. So it's hardly some kind of union specific gold-plated carte blanche to behave however they wish, as some have painted it.

So kindly cease and desist, all ye who reckon it's now going to be open slather for union election spending. Unions don't have that much spare dosh anyway.



* I haven't written on this yet cos I haven't read enough. I don't know if I'll have a chance anytime soon realistically.

Linky Love - Volume 12

Hard to believe Linky Love has been going for nearly 3 months now! Any feedback welcome either in comments or by email.

Linky Love is a few hours early this week because I won't be at a puter again until Saturday probably. This is the third week in a row that it's been on a Thursday, so maybe that should be the new day. We'll see how I feel next Thursday I guess!

Standard intro - if you have a post of your own, or some else's, that you'd like to highlight please feel free to add it in comments, or to discuss the above posts, or indeed most anything else.

Andrew Falloon - Jim Anderton's Progressives, Post-Jim - Andrew has an interesting article on the possible involvement of the Progs in local body elections in Christchurch later this year, and what this might bode for their strategy in coming general elections.

Bloggreen - Crafty coolness - Kakariki has some fantastic links and pics of radical craftiness - beautiful and political at the same time.

Capitalism Bad - Geeking out - Maia ranks her five most, and five least, feminist episodes of Buffy, and why.

from the morgue - Psychological violence - morgue contributes to the debate on s59 with a post addressing the nonsensical claims that time out is as damaging as smacking.

The Legal Soapbox - No excuse - Legal Eagle gives her thoughts on how media phenomena like reality television and YouTube are normalising bullying and sexual offending.

Make Tea Not War - Richard Dawkins - The God Delusion - MTNW gives her thoughts on Dawkins' book and offers a place to discuss your own conclusions about his theories on religious delusion.

No Right Turn - Still failing the poor: Why NZ needs to give more aid - Terence Wood does a guest spot with a great column putting forward three strong arguments for Aotearoa to give more aid to others.

Shakesville - Feminism Benefits Us All - Mr Shakes decorates the new home of the Shakespeare's Sister team with a great post about why men should be into feminism too.

Shakesville - Sexism posing as science - brynn looks at some dodgy science about women's sexual responses which heads in the direction of claiming rape is naturally part of a woman's lot.

The Strategist - Negotiating with the Taliban - In which the Strategist examines debate emanating from German Social Democrat leader Kurt Beck's call to negotiate with moderate parts of the Taliban.

Tales from the Reading Room - A Code of Blogging Conduct - litlove writes about the discussions burgeoning in blogospheres overseas in the wake of the persecution of a female blogger in tech circles (covered in a previous Linky Love). Interesting that the timing of this echoes similar posting and commenting in NZ. (Che Tibby, this one's for you!).

Walking with Ghosts - Naturally I'm not the first to make this comparison... - Phoenician in a time of Romans compares militant evangelical youth movement Battlecry's propaganda with that of Hitler Youth.

And don't forget, previous volumes of Linky Love can be found in their own shiny category.

Linky Love - Volume 11

Tomorrow's Good Friday, so again Linky Love is early this week.

Standard intro - if you have a post of your own, or some else's, that you'd like to highlight please feel free to add it in comments, or to discuss the above posts, or indeed most anything else.

Caraka - Strike at the root, not the branches - caraka highlights an article on the Saudi involvement in terrorism and asks a few searching questions too.

Feministe - Abstinence-only craziness - Jill has a great post highlighting a range of abstinence programmes, all of which are united by the common theme of characterising women who have pre-marital sex as used up. So good to know that an intact hymen is the most important thing about a woman.

Feministing - WaPo: Wage gap is "A bargain at 77 cents to a dollar" - Jessica reports on the drivel in the Washington Post that women should be happy to be paid less then men.

from the morgue - On Purity - morgue writes about the hard-core Christian "purity" drives and how they may be coming to New Zealand.

Hard News - The Solipsistic Left - Russell Brown covers and critiques the claims by Nick Cohen that we lefties are all dirty misogynistic, anti-Semitic, homophobic supporters of radical Islam. What, even the feminist Jewish lesbians?

Joe Hendren - Don't let climate change quibbles weaken movement - Joe Hendren responds to the frequent (and really rather dull) attacks on those campaigning to stop climate changing behaviours because they use air travel, and cars, and other wacky modern inventions that our society relies on and which sadly contribute to warming the planet. I'm sure Al Gore would have got his message out far wider if he had relied on bicycle power as some would prefer.

Larvatus Prodeo - Work/Death Balance - Kim argues that the Australian Government is promoting work more and more as a duty which must be done for longer and longer, and that this creates an environment with unconscionable levels of work-related stress.

No Right Turn - A closer look: election funding - Idiot/Savant turns his attention to the Campaign for Open Government's proposals to review the funding of electioneering.

What We Said - A Very Rough Guide to Feminism - Make Tea Not War gives us her take on feminism - a good read for those who reckon they hate feminists!

Women's Space/The Margins - Republican Bill Would Have Jailed Women For Not Reporting Miscarriages to the Police - Heart reports on a US bill, luckily withdrawn, which sounds like all kinds of crazy.

And don't forget, previous volumes of Linky Love can be found in their own shiny category.

Linky Love - Volume 8

Standard intro - if you have a post of your own, or some else's, that you'd like to highlight please feel free to add it in comments, or to discuss the above posts, or indeed most anything else.

High number of posts about sexism and the like in this volume, because of International Women's Day on March 8th. In the USA this was of course our March 9th, and it was dubbed Blog Against Sexism Day.

Alas (a blog) - Fear - Maia (who has also posted this at Capitalism Bad; Tree Pretty) tells the story of what happened to her after the Wellington IWD protest, sadly an everyday tale of the fear women face walking alone at night.

Auckland's Burning - What drugs are the socialists on? (And why don't they share?) - John's message about climate change to the socialists? No having of cake and eating it too.

blogging it real - A que cono esta Bush? - Bobert asks why the hell has George W headed down to Latin America when only bad things can happen? (Apologies for mangling the title of Bobert's post, I don't know how to insert the correct grammatical letters).

Feministe - Hi, I'm Jill, and scummy law school sleazebags have gone after me too - This one will have you outraged within seconds. Or at least it should.

Hear Me Roar - In-depth Look at Rape - Tobes particularly examines a startlingly long list of movies that perpetuate the myth of the high frequency of women making false rape accusations.
Ilyka Damen - "We Don't Go For That Sexism 'Round These Parts" - gennimcmahon outlines her first memory of experiencing sexism and asks readers to contribute theirs. A fascinating comment thread.

Ilyka Damen - Early Registration - Ilyka examines the birth of her feminism, and the realisation she had in her late teens courtesy of a Cover Girl eyeshadow trio, in the staff restroom at MacDonalds.

Joe Hendren - Rickards case raises real issues with jury trials in New Zealand - Joe gives us his thoughts on the police rape trials, and the surrounding legal issues.

Kiwiblog - How to delay a bill - David Farrar explains the various delaying tactics those in Opposition can use, in the context of the debate on the repeal of s59 of the Crimes Act.

Kiwi Herald - Kiwi Mums and Dads Get In Last Few Slaps - John reports on the trend in Moenui, ahead of Sue Bradford's bill to repeal s59 becoming law.

Liberation - 2008 NZ election likely to be fought on the environment - Bryce Edwards postulates that our 2008 Bunfight will go a similar way to politics in the UK at the moment, namely end up focused on a fight about how to beat climate change.

Maramatanga - Field's path to re-election - Maramatanga looks at Taito Philip Field, Labour, and Mangere, and the possibilities for a new Pacific Island or family values to evolve from the mess.

No Right Turn - The section 59 debate - Idiot/Savant covers the Parliamentary debate(s) over the committee stage of the repeal of s59, doing his bit for enlightening us all on the creation of law.

Pandagon - I Like My Sexism Like I Like My Hardwood Floors: Deeply Ingrained - Auguste writes about his evolution away from sexism and towards enlightenment.

Ranting off the ROK - Ranting in Laos: Planes, Plains and Phonsavan - stef has left Korea and is travelling home via as many other Asian countries as she can shoe-horn in. In this post she writes about Laos, with pics!

Secret Passage - Corned Beef, dognuts and representing the Western Springs - Robyn reports colourfully on her visit to the Pasifika Festival.

Smell the Magic Kitty - Lindey Lohan upskirt, Britney crotch shots - Yes, I know, you can't believe you just read that on this blog. Bear with me; click through, and then mouse over the hot links...

Tales from the Reading Room - Atwood & Tolstoy - litlove covers The Handmaid's Tale and Anna Karenina, with some very interesting feminist observations.

Previous volumes of Linky Love can be found in their own shiny category.

Men in Parliament

I seem to be sighing a lot lately. The latest inspiration of that tired and frustrated exhalation is the thread resulting from DPF's post about the representation of women in different parliaments around the world.

I've said it before, and it's relevant here too; I don't generally read the comment threads on Kiwiblog anymore. But I thought, hey the post clearly shows that women are under-represented throughout the world, how bad can it be?

Silly me.

Imagine if DPF had instead represented the situation like this:

The "bottom" country is surprisingly Rwanda with 41/80 MPs being men, or
51%

NZ is in 14th= place (out of 189 countries) at 68%.

Australia is 33rd with 75%.

Nine countries have only men as legislators. The top ranked
European country is Ukraine at 91%, then Russia 90%, Romania 89%, and France
88%.

Perhaps then the outrage from the commenters would have been more muted, particularly from that enlightened fellow who said NZ needs to be more like the Ukraine. If you like it so much why don't you move there?

Men, your woes (real or imagined) are not caused by women holding positions of power. As you can see, you still hold the majority in every parliament in the world. And that doesn't even include those religious autocracies which I think I can safely say are governed almost unanimously by men and actively suppress women's roles outside the home.

The stats clearly show that men continue to be over-represented in the parliaments of the world. Let's hope our country can help change that in 2008.

Update, 5th March 2007, 3.24pm - fixed link to DPF's post. Sorry about that, I used his trackback URL but it obviously doesn't work!

No policy please, we're National

So let me get this straight, John Key's policy announcements since his ascension are:

• A (privately-donated) muesli bar in every school lunch box
• Back To The Workhouses Work For The Dole (maybe, not sure yet; I don't know, what do you think; I'm sure it worked last time!)
• National hearts John Howard (oh wait, that's not a policy, that's a Tory love-fest)
• The Maori seats gone at some point in the foreseeable future (possibly put off if National needs the Maori Party to get those Beehive offices)
• A slight increase to donation tax rebates for the rich (which Labour are going to do anyway*)

Is that it? Have I missed any?

My word, I just don't know how Helen Clark is going to counter these astonishing new policy ideas. Key is certainly setting a cracking pace!

Perhaps his Education spokesperson, Katherine Rich, might even have an early childhood education policy some time before the end of the decade, so that she can refer to it when being interviewed about how pants she thinks the Government's is. Because sooner or later some journalist is going to ask the question - What would National do - and not let her off the hook with a "we'll have a policy by the end of the year" as Sean Plunkett did on RNZ National earlier this week.**

What happened to all those policies they had at the last election? Did they just forget about them? Now that's not very sustainable. My recollection of party policy processes is that the policy remains until it is replaced by something new. If it is really embarassing you might say that it is currently X but under review. Certainly the major Opposition party should have current policy on current issues.

After all, if 10 Labour MPs defected to United Future tomorrow then Key could be Prime Minister by lunchtime, and then what would his Government be doing if they have already shown all the old policies the door and robustly asserted that those ideas shall never darken their threshold again?

I suspect National's new policy will be remarkably similar to what Don Brash's leadership produced, it just hasn't been re-branded yet. After all, it takes a lot of scrubbing to get that Exclusive Bretheren smell out.***

* The current Government has also foreshadowed that they are likely to allow those who do voluntary work to claim some of it back under the donation rebate scheme too.

** Ok so it's only Tuesday which means it must have been yesterday. But I'm not a hundy sure. Sorry about that. And at least Plunkett asked the frakking question.

*** Yes this is an unusually grumpy post. Blame it on the lack of sleep and chalk it up to experience. Either that or a subconscious desire to inflame my readers into an orgy of commenting that will result in the spontaneous combustion of many of my most reviled foes. Who can tell?

Field of Dreams

So Taito Field's days on the Red Team are over. Surely this must be the beginning of the end game regarding the Mangere electorate?

Others (see below) have already written good stuff, but I wanted to add a little bit more to the blog debate about his options from here.

To start with, I don't think he's going to join the Maori Party. It's pretty clear to me that the visit from Pita Sharples and Tariana Turia was about being nice, not being teammates. Sharples made it pretty clear on Nat Rad that he'd done the same thing for (Labour MP) David Parker when he was in the schizen, and there was certainly no suggestion of Parker being invited into the wharenui. Sharples made the point that if Field was to join the Maori Party the invite would have to come from the Party itself, not the co-leaders. That seems pretty unlikely I would think.

Another option that has been thrown around is the Family Rights Protection Party (or whatever it is called, sorry I can't remember exactly). What little I know about this party is based on the fact that they turned up to a City Vision meeting a few years back. I recognised at least one of the key people speaking for the FRPP that night - I knew her from a distance when she was one of the leaders of the Alliance's Pasifika wing back before the 2002 split. They were very loyal to Matt Robson and left with Jim Anderton, but the one thing I remember very strongly about this woman was that she was supposed to have been on a 20/20 documentary (or was it 60 Minutes? nevermind). The doco was about violence towards children, and there was allegedly some pretty damning footage of her engaging in said activity. Could well be she's changed, could well be it was made out to be something it wasn't, could well be that they aren't really extant anymore and Field wouldn't go there anyway. I'm just sayin' is all.

Now that Field is an independent I think that makes it a bit more likely that he will seek re-election (assuming he isn't convicted of course). Mangere could become a bitter place in 2008, as we have seen in the past when MPs have split from their parties and still run in the same seat. Having been rather up close and personal during the Alliance split in 2002, I know that there may already be a lot of fractured friendships within Mangere's LEC*. Just wait until the heat of an actual election campaign to see things really meltdown, if Field runs again.

What will Field need to succeed in Mangere as an independent?

1. No charges by the police (or no conviction plus a certain amount of vindication), and;
2. Money to mount a campaign, and;
3. Volunteers to run that campaign, and;
4. Something he can promise the locals, something that could compete with the promises of a Labour candidate who would potentially be part of the Government, and;
5. A weak Labour candidate, particularly someone lacking vital links to the local community.

I don't see Labour making the mistake necessary to deliver 5. Su'a William Sio has already been mentioned by many bloggers and journos. He's not that far off being an MP in this term (two more List MP resignations and he is in) and he's currently on the Manukau City Council. He's an obvious pick, but I'm sure there are others waiting in the wings as well. For a start there are several List MPs who could run there with a certain amount of cred, possibly Shane Jones or Dave Hereora.

It would be an uphill battle for Field to win again, and Labour will fight hard to avoid relinquishing a previously safe seat. But at the same time this is the last thing the Labour party machine needs to win another term on the Treasury benches - a desperate fight in South Auckland, sucking up media, effort and money.

And so to the last option that I don't think anyone else has canvassed (?). Field could resign (soon or next year) and not seek re-election. He could simply say "flag this for a game of soldiers I'm going back to Samoa (after all, the tiling on my house is exceptional), why bother with this malarky?"

From what we know of him to date this doesn't seem the logical outcome. But you never know, politics isn't like war - in politics you can get killed more than once.**

Related links:

Maramatanga has a good post on Field, looking at his options (he has now picked to go it alone as an independent.)

Carl at SMSD expresses the sentiment shared by many on the Left (including within Labour).

Idiot/Savant covers Field's decision to go his own way, and is scathing about the Maori Party co-leaders' visit.

(Feel free to add a link to your own post on this in comments)

Update, 19th Feb 1.35pm: Maramatanga has written a further post on the Field situation, including the (outside) possibility of Destiny joining the fray...

* Labour Electorate Committee for those not in on the lingo.

** Bonus points to anyone who can name the telly series I've cannibalised this from.

National's "new" policy agenda

A funny thing happened on the way to being in Government (or not). It seems that National have forgotten that their party has internal policy processes.

Since John Key's elevation to the leadership he's made a number of announcements and references indicating a significant policy shift. This creates some confusion for back-room boffins like myself, when Key makes speeches indicating a move away from Don Brash-era policies like a timeframe for immediately abolishing the Maori seats*, focusing on the issue of climate change (which Key and other leading figures considered questionable not that long ago), not to mention endorsing a nuclear-free New Zealand. Did National squeeze in some remit voting between Brash stepping down and Key opening his mouth?

Most recently, in his Jan. 30th "State of the Nation" speech, Key announced school breakfasts (yep, that's right, really BIG policy stuff) and this month there has been a policy announcement about putting Corrections back into Justice. Those with longer memories may recall that a) many low decile schools started breakfast programmes years ago, and b) National took Corrections out of Justice in the first place when it was last in power.

Now please don't think I don't want National to talk policy. I definitely do - not only so that voters can see what National would do in power, but also because I think it's an important part of democracy that the Opposition not only criticise but also put forward alternatives.

But in the wake of The Hollow Men and the insight that gave into National's policy processes prior to the 2005 election, you'd think Key would be trying to distance himself from the perception that National are more Decepticonz than neocons. By changing policy himself, by media statement and speech-making, he is signalling that National is still a party which will change policy not via it's own, long-standing democratic processes, but to suit political whims.

I'm also a little perturbed by National's approach to industrial relations, which Jordan has already blogged about. Key has said that they wouldn't shift away from the ERA as the key piece of legislation, however continuing to endorse Wayne Mapp's 90 day probation law suggests that National would still want to make some radical changes to employment law.

So perhaps a reader who is in National would care to comment - do Key's announcements reflect recent internal policy debates (and of course their outcomes)? Please note, anonymous comments have never been banned on this blog.


* I first started writing this post in early Dec 2006. Now Key has actually gone back to almost Brash's policy, but he has still delayed the possible implementation of the abolition by three to six years on what Brash promised, to 2014. I smell the whiff of a bargaining chip for negotiations with the Maori Party myself, but Sharples and Turia don't appear to appreciate the game playing.

A few surprises in the Labour caucus

Both Jordan Carter and DPF have posted on the Fran O'Sullivan column about Labour renewal on their list, and what kind of people O'Sullivan wants to see Labour select and/or promote.

This has provoked some contest in comments about the current make-up of the Labour list, and the National list for that matter, and whether either meet O'Sullivan's call for:

... Business people, successful entrepreneurs, military men, scientists, accountants, farmers, diplomats and even a few lawyers, a Tim Finn or a Sam Neill to revitalise my [Helen Clark's] Government.

O'Sullivan herself notes a few people who actually do fit her list who are already in the Labour caucus or likely to enter it, including Shane Jones and Stuart Nash, and says that the party currently has amongst its MPs:

More than half of the caucus have been either trade union secretaries or union
activists at some stage of their careers. Or they were teachers, lecturers, community workers and nurses.

The caucus boasts a couple of lawyers, a farmer and some with business experience but they are in a clear minority.

First up, what is actually wrong with being a teacher, lecturer, community worker or nurse? Or a union activist*? Many NZers are, and in public votes on the most respected professions teachers and nurses are generally right up there. Certainly they would have more contact with a broader range of us everyday Kiwis than your average merchant banker.

Then there's the second bit I've quoted, the current makeup of the Labour caucus. Now I've had a quick gander at the Labour bios on the Parliamentary website and actually the MPs can tick more of O'Sullivan boxes than I thought, from a perusal of their former careers. A lot of the bios are clearly incomplete, but still I came up with the below:

Poultry farmer - Chris Carter
Partner in one of the big law firms - Charles Chauvel
Business management experience - Clayton Cosgrove
Diplomat, management consultant (latter is according to Stef, in comments, added 25th Jan) - David Cunliffe
Another lawyer - Lianne Dalziel
Soldier AND lawyer - Russell Fairbrother
Possible accountant ("Computer accounts, Treasury") - Phillip Field (oh the irony)
Company director - Martin Gallagher
Retailer ("Fruit and vegetable shop") - Pete Hodgson
Shearer and farm overseer - Parekura Horomia
CEO of a local Enterprise Board - Annette King
Business person AND dairy farmer - Damien O'Connor
Lawyer, manager and director, "worked in agri-biotechnology field" - David Parker
Finance Officer in the banking sector - Jill Pettis
Business management experience, including being a Fellow of the NZIM - Ross Robertson
Air Force service, tourism operator - Dover Samuels
Restaurant owner and manager - Judith Tizard
Another lawyer and legal academic (clarified in response to comments, 25th Jan) - Margaret Wilson

So I make that**:

• 10 business people (hard to define what counts and what doesn't, of course)
• 2 "military men"
• 1 possible scientist (Parker)
• 2 possible accountants (Field and Pettis)
• 2 farmers and 1 farm overseer (O'Sullivan said Labour's caucus had "a farmer")
• 1 diplomat
• 5 lawyers (O'Sullivan said there are "a couple" now and that the party needed "a few")

It seems to me that O'Sullivan's point is that Labour doesn't have enough owners. It doesn't have enough people who represent capital, rather than labour (note small l). I believe Labour does need serious renewal, but imho Labour is too favourable to the owners already.

I challenge O'Sullivan to have a butcher's at the diversity in National's caucus with a similarly critical eye, and see just how representative John Key's party is.



* Many who were union activists did it concurrently with work in other areas, which is the reality for most uniony people.
** Clearly some of the Labour caucus have done more than one of the things on O'Sullivan's list, so the bullet points would add up funny. Successful entrepreneurs I have no idea about, as I can't get that kind of information from the bios. Oh, and Jim Anderton, leader of the Progressives, but secretly a Labour MP in disguise, was a business person (managing director of 2 businesses according to his bio) - I'm sure someone told me once that he used to own a factory that made shopping trolleys, amongst other things.

National cuddles up to the sidestream vote

So John Key is off to Ratana today, and was making nice noises toward Maori on Morning Report earlier. And Jackie Blue's positive comments about Tariana Turia in the Herald yesterday have been posted by David Farrar.

Anyone else smell a charm offensive?

Key knows he has a lot of work to do to mend the bridges razed to the ground under Don Brash's leadership. I'm pretty sure I heard him say something in the media recently about the need for National to make it clear they will work with groups that don't vote for them if/when they win a term in the Beehive.* Not only is he correct about this in the sense of a functioning democracy, it's also good strategy for moderating the public perception of his party.

In some ways the timing of Key's ascension has been very bad for Labour - the Xmas break has allowed him to appear brand spanking new, and shiny with it, for 2007.

IMHO the media is being quite soft on him and he is encouraging it by being very careful with his tone and words, focusing on coming across as someone who hasn't made up their mind yet about various matters and is still considering. It will be interesting to see how long he will be given to put his stakes in the sand. Giving a big interview to Investigate was a clever tactic - National strategists must know that the hard right will read it but "mainstream" NZ is unlikely to.

I look forward to Key's plays for voter groups formerly written off by National; women, non-Pakeha, union members, non-heteros, etc. I doubt however that National's policies will change much to reflect the friendlier shop window.


* New blogger Carl from Single Malt Social Democrat thinks it unlikely Labour will be turfed out next time, in an interesting post about the possibilities for the 2008 election.