The leftward and other blatherings of Span (now with Snaps!)

Thursday, July 28, 2005

the return of word on the street - here's hoping it's right this time

I hear a reasonably reliable (I would say 7 on a scale of 1 to 10) rumour that there is going to be a new poll out tomorrow showing Labour 6 points ahead.

Nat and Lab were level pegging tonight on TV3, on 39%, but that wouldn't have taken into account the full impact of the loans announcement, as the polling was ending as the news came out.

Hopefully this new poll will see Labour regaining momentum and then I can safely cast my vote further left :-)

I would dearly love to know the Undecideds on these polls though - still very little reporting around it...


Johnny the Red said...

My god woman, what are you going blogging at this hour? Don't you know Doctor Who is on?

Anyway, the lack of reporting or analysis of the "undecided" vote really tears my nightie. Especially under MMP the undecideds will pretty much swing the election one way or the other (or at least they might - we don't know because the media WONM'T FRIGGING TELL US HOW MANY THERE ARE). Ahem.

So. How many are there, how did they vote in the last election, and do they have any strong antipathy to any particular party?

Or are we all to stupid to understand the answers?

span said...

actually Doctor Who was on an ad break.

Although i did miss a little bit of it as The Man In The Comfy Chair (now a misleading title due to the removal of said Comfy Chair from lounge as a result of the imposition of two comfy couches) was a bit remiss in informing me that it was back on.

Just as well it's repeated on Sunday :-)

span said...

But in regard to the undecideds - it would be very interesting to ask them who they are NOT going to vote for. good idea JTR!

i suspect that we aren't too stupid, it's just that there are quite a lot of the blighters (for no good reason at all the figure 21% keeps popping into my head when I think about Them) and it would make the neck and neck Lab-Nat race less exciting to report.

Johnny the Red said...

Sigh, you're probably right. I'm not sure which is worse, thinking we're stupid or thinking we won't keep up with the coverage unless it's structured like a horse-race.

21% sounds right. For some reason I had 25% - in fact wasn't something like 50% have a firm party loyalty, 25% make up their mind in the weeks leading up to the election and the other 25% decide on the day? Those are probably the FPP figures though ...

Bren said...

This article says that the undecided was at 12% in today's poll.

gpjwatson said...

Many polling companies have a 'mop up' type question. This is where someone has not given a firm party preference, and is then asked if they have a leaning, even if only a little. These are usually added in to party support figures.

This lessens the total undecideds, as arguably while still undecided these punters have displayed some sort of preference.

t selwyn said...

"When pressed" they "expressed a preference" is, I think, the jargon they use.

Shall go out in the next hour and pick up an early edition of the Herald at the servo so I can adjust my odds before the pack descends.

Interesting to see Canbet swing back from early Nat support.

gpjwatson said...

How about posting here or on your blog (or both) Tim when you get the early news.

How come your blog is on Davids list as left????

t selwyn said...

Left??? Some people think that not being a racist old bigot (being pro-Maori property rights) and not being an imperialist militarist (not supporting America invading everywhere on a carte blanche basis) equates to being left wing. Those are the only things I can think of.

Anyway, I have posted on my site and adjusted the odds.

Herald digipoll:
LAB 43.9%,
NAT 37.5%,
NZF 7.1%,
MAO 3.4%,
GRN 3.2%,
UNF 1.9%,
ACT 1.0%,
DST 0.6%,
ALL 0.5%,
PRG 0.3%
Others 0.6%

Commie Mutant Traitor said...

The last Colmar Brunton poll reports 15% undecided on the party vote, and 21% undecided on the electorate vote.