The leftward and other blatherings of Span (now with Snaps!)

Sunday, August 01, 2004

speaker stoush?

theme music: rumble in the jungle (and it's alright by me)

Act have been talking about Prebble for speaker if the right win the next election. National have announced that Simich won't be seeking Tamaki, but will go on the List, where their speaker should be. Is there not a bit of a conflict here?

quite apart from the fact that i think (and fervently hope) it unlikely that anyone other than Labour will be choosing the next speaker, this raises an interesting scenario.

National could trade off Tamaki to keep Act safe - if I were them I'd look to bring in a carpetbagger for the seat (although I understand it is much harder to do that in National than in other parties) so that the local party wouldn't be too pissed if their candidate had to be knobbled, a la Mark Thomas 1996, a few weeks out from E Day.

But then what would happen about the speakership? Would the Nats want to fight for it for Simich or would they be prepared to give it to Act? What would they get for giving it to Prebble rather than Simich? I imagine either would be competent (not that I would want either of them to get the job), so it gives the Nats HQ a lot of power to determine Simich's future really. Would they fob one of them off with a ministerial job instead? (and how would the new Act feel about Prebble as a Minister again! how would the public react to the possibility!!)



Fi said...

You know I was wondering about this during the weekend (yes, that's how boring my weekend was).

It will be interesting to see how things shape up. Now that he is leader, I wonder how likely it will be that Rodney goes hard out in Epsom?

I am also curious to see what the outcome of the cabinet reshuffle is - I wonder who will come and who will go?

span said...

yep that reshuffle is going to be interesting. i didn't realise Hunt was going early, i thought he was waiting until the election, but apparently not.

Prebble's future is interesting - my partner has been speculating for some months that he really wants the speakership, and it's clear from his "Mr Speaker, I may be able to shed some light here..." that he has been keen for some time, but now that he's not a party leader i guess it is much more likely. but would Hide really want him sticking around and effectively lording it over him (this assumes Hide is a Minister and Prebble speaker)? i suspect Hide would nobble Prebble if it came down to it - i get the impression they aren't exactly great mates.