The leftward and other blatherings of Span (now with Snaps!)

Tuesday, October 04, 2005

retirement roulette

Do these intentions not to seek Cabinet also equal likelihoods of retirement at the end of the current term?

Will there be fresh Labour faces not only in the current Cabinet, but also contesting Wellington Central (Hobbs), Manurewa (Hawkins), and Rimutaka (Swain) in 2008 (or earlier)?

There will clearly be a glut of Labour retirements in 2008, and the likelihood is that although some seats may change hands, most will remain Labour Red (TM). My other picks for fresh meat are Aoraki (Sutton) and Wigram (Anderton).


Update: I/S rightly points out that there could be retirements before the next election from List MPs, Sutton in particular.


Craig Ranapia said...

I don't see Hobbs being eased out of Wellington Central without a very nasty fight and here's why: She's one of two members of the Labour caucus who can say she increased her majority AND Labour's party vote. There's also the emotional factor: Wellington Central is a high profile seat, with a very vocal and well-heeled membership. I'd suggestion Labour take a lesson from the Wellington Central Nats - sodomising your own candidate isn't a good look. Doing it to a popular incumbent - well, you might as well turn 2008 into a straight Nats vs. Green race.

span said...

you know she may decide she wants to go of her own accord - having been in Govt and had the influence accorded to a Cabinet Minister (and now a retired Cabinet Minister) the lure of standing down would be strong, as she has no where else to go, in a Parliamentary sense.

I wonder if she'd consider running for Mayor of Wellington in 2007?

David Farrar said...

Hobbs for Mayor could be interesting (and ironic). Kerry has said she is standing down and no high profile candidates yet known.

span said...

alrighty then, the rumour starts here - Hobbs for Mayor 2007!

given the good organisation that Labour has built in Wellington Central I'm sure she could run a good campaign and it could rejuvenate other Wellington electorates for them too.

here's hoping Jordan spots this and shares.