United's future
STC has posted about United Future's prospects come the end of the year, and in particular has referred to Dunne's contention that he is looking for a proper coalition with Labour and seat(s) at the Cabinet table.
This expectation of Dunne's seems at odds with the likely outcome for UF in the election. If they do have only one or two MPs, which certainly looks the go at this stage, then Labour may not feel the need to deal with them except on Confidence and Supply basis, and as an alternative to the Greens - in other words, the same arrangement that they have since 2002.
I doubt that Dunne is going to be in a power broking position where he can say he wants a Crown car - Anderton only has one because of his personal relationships and the fact that he was in Cabinet before the 2002 election imho.
The worm is not going to feature this year - Dunne is going to struggle to keep UF's profile up enough without it, and I know several people who voted for his party in 2002 who will definitely not be voting that way again.
5 comments:
why thank you for your blog spam jono - i have actually asked you a question about this over on your blog - is there somewhere you can point me to a bit more info about the whole bizzo please? ta muchly
Michael Cullen made it clear he was happy with UF, at conference.
UF's commitment has been to support a stable Government. I think that their "Stable, Commen Sensical" approach could still find some resonance.
Apparently they are going to be openly more ambitious this time, talking themsleves up as a genuine contender for "third party" of NZ. Expect them to heavily bag NZ First, and if Brash falters, National.
i don't know about the resonance - in 2002 UF were the fashionable party to vote for if you were unsure, this time around i don't think they're going to get the sympathetic media coverage. plus Dunne's new haircut makes him look like a bit of a dweeb (sorry but it does).
Parties like UF only really exist thanks to the "grumpy vote" - since this is by definition dissatisfied with the government of the day, being in coalition can only damage them.
maybe the grumpy vote is getting bigger then - certainly UF, NZF and the Alliance (and probably the Greens, but a different class of grump) have benefitted from it in the past.
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