early election? bah humbug

this may well come back to bite me in the arse, but anyway:

the Tamihere saga is unlikely to cause an early election. Let's look at the scenarios:

1. JT gets off the allegations - he'll stay out of Cabinet but in the House - i suspect Labour will bend over backwards to keep him in

2. JT doesn't get off and resigns (or is kicked) - by-election in Tamaki Makaurau that basically only MP or Lab can win - if MP wins and doesn't come to the party on confidence and supply then it will lose a lot of its support base. of course they will want concessions (and fair enough) and Lab will have to give them, as its polling rating is likely to dip after losing a by-election and Lab won't call an early election unless there is some advantage to it. also the Greens would probably promise confidence and supply in return for support on the zero tolerance issue around GE food, a pretty cheap price for Lab.

so all in all, no excuse for an early election (just like last time really) but this time the difference is that Lab won't want to go early as their polling is not high enough yet. end of story.