a little loose conversation - United looking important

United is likely to bring in at least 3, which could be crucial to how this falls out - with a two seat gap between Labour and National at the moment, with over 70% counted, it's looking like a 1 or 1.5% gap between the two majors.

Green has been staying solid, so there's 6 MPs for Labour, plus Jim and Matt Robson, making 56, which is a minority Govt. Maori look likely to get 4. National plus Act would only be 52 or 53. So United's 3 and Winston's 6 or 7 will be pivotal. Any conversations between Don Brash et al and Peters have got to be fraught, given Clarkson has taken Tauranga.

The more stable option for Dunne support would have to be Labour-led - but he has promised to talk to the party with the most seats first...