some predictions

No, not how the vote is going to fall out - the combination of the closeness of the contest, volatility of the polls, and my own wishful thinking would make any prediction i might care to put out there guaranteed to be wrong.

But I've been thinking about what might happen if National gets in - which of their policies they might have to trade down a size.

Mostly I've been thinking about education policy. I don't think NZ First is going to stand for compulsory bulk funding - Donnelly just doesn't believe it's workable, so that would become voluntary instead. In some ways this would be worse, as National would of course put a lot of money into it at first, and then once many schools have taken the bribe and gone into the scheme the funding will start to shrink, resulting in an acceleration of the creeping privatisation already afflicting our schools. Of course it'll be a one way street - you can opt in to the scheme, but once you're in, that's it, until/unless a change of Government reverses things.

But in the industrial relations arena I don't think NZ First will care much, and United Future certainly won't stand in National's way (especially if Mark Alexander gets back in by some miracle). I suspect that Mapp already has his Employment Contracts Act Mark 2 drafted, and it would be in by Christmas (what a nice present under the tree for bosses). It will of course reverse the recent amendments to the ERA and no doubt we'll see an end to time and a half and a day in lieu for working Christmas Day, no four weeks annual leave, no paid parental leave, and National has just promised to "review" sick leave. Workers currently only get 5 days sick leave a year, unless they are lucky enough to be covered by a collective agreement which gives them more. Five days really aren't very much - that's a cold for you and chicken pox for one of your kids, and it's all gone for the rest of the year.

Brash said on Kim Hill last night that he wasn't intending to review the five Maori agencies but to abolish them - the two which relate to the Treaty settlement process would hang around until 2010 to finish off the job, but Te Puni Kokiri would be gone. I suspect both UF and NZF would vote for this. But in terms of abolishing the Maori seats, I think National would have to hold a referendum to get support from the two centre-right parties. Of course this would be a referendum of all seats, not just the Maori seats, so bye bye to them, and hello to political violence in NZ.

In terms of nuclear-free, I think that will be a second-term attempt. National know they need a few years to change the mood in NZ first.

Any predictions in other areas folks?