The leftward and other blatherings of Span (now with Snaps!)

Monday, May 02, 2005

manifestly not the Only Poll That Counts

Further to About Town's poll asking which of four named parties is least likely to get (back) into Parliament in July/August/September 2005.

As I pointed out in comments, it's not really an Apples and Apples Situation - it would be fairer to compare the major extra-parliamentary minnows than compare one of them to three minor parties who are in the House already.

So to that end:

Who do you think is most likely to break the 5% threshold in 2005?

Choices are from, in alphabetical order:

- Aotearoa Legalise Cannabis Party (ALCP)
- Alliance
- Christian Heritage Party
- Destiny NZ
- Libertarianz
- NZ Democrats
- National Front (not yet registered)

Votes in comments please.

You might also want to speculate about who will get the lowest share of the party vote too...


Jono said...

Ok only because of the selection, I really have to say of that lot the Alliance is the most likely to break 5%, and the one who will most likely have the smallest vote count will be NF. Destiny is likely to get more than NF but no where near as much as some of the others

Aaron Bhatnagar said...

I disagree. I think that Destiny is the party in this group that will get closest to 5% - although I suspect that it will be around 2-3% on election day, falling well short.

Rich said...

Alliance - I don't think Density have ever polled much over 1% - and I would hope that more images of blackshirts on telly at election time will reduce their vote rather than increase it.

I doub't the Alliance will breach 5% unless they can come up with some really good ideas or issues between now and the election.

Aaron Bhatnagar said...

I disagree - I think they could get over 2%. The CHP-sympathetic vote will have collapsed thanks to Graham Capill, and will be looking for a new home. I imagine that Destiny is the obvious choice for the fundamentalist/ultra-conservative christian vote.

Greg Stephens said...

I would be surprised if any of them get over 2%. But the most likely to do well is the Alliance considering that they were in power and thus have profile, name recognition, membership and aren't divisive like Destiny or NF.

The max I can see each party getting is:
ALCP 0.5%
Alliance 1.5%
CHP 0.5%
Destiny 1%
Libz 0.5%
NZD 0.5%
NF 0.1%

Asher said...

I'll say Destiny - they'll pick up a lot of CHP's vote, and some of UF's.

Gareth Robinson said...

I would rank them as
1) Destiny NZ - 1.5%
2) Alliance
4) Christian Heritage
5) Libertarianz
6) National Front
7) NZ Democrats - 0.1%

Destiny would gain votes from United and Christian Heritage, the Alliance and ALCP will lose votes to the Greens to keep them in Parliament, the Libz will lose votes to ACT, and the National Front will get more votes than the Democrats simply due to name recognition.

Kakariki said...

I don't think any of them will make it and I suggest that neither will ACT, making a less party-populated parliament in the next term. There are a couple of other waste of space parties I'd like to see leave but those damn electorate seats.

And as much as it saddens me to say this I think Destiny will beat the lot of them. I think the Alliance won't do well, mostly because almost every Alliance supporter I know likes their ideals but privately doesn't have the confidence in them hitting 5% and will be putting their votes elsewhere to ensure they 'count'.

My order is:
National Front
Christian Democrats

Graham Watson said...

Definitely Destiny,

I have been chatting with a few of their politicos and can assure they are highly organised and dedicated. They are as if not more driven than your usual party activist, and will campiagn very hard.

Xavier said...

Eck. It pains me to say this, but Destiny would probably get more than Alliance.

STC said...

Destiny top and CHP Bottom.

span said...

Destiny could do very well, although I doubt they'll break 5% - they have stacks of dosh, a public profile (going on the any publicity theory) and those who do follow them are very committed. I'm not sure if they will quite get political campaigning this time, but I'm sure they will see any votes above the 2% mark as a great victory and a building block for the future.

I wonder if the NF will take any votes off the N(Z)F?

Michael said...

I'm sure none will break 5%.

Top would be Alliance - they were clearly had the best people of the two JA parties after he split.

Lowest will be NF, they won't even get registered because they don't have 500 members.

span said...

the problem for the Alliance is going to be turning around 2 years of neglect by past leaders (not to mention before that).

it will be very interesting to see which minor party gets the Media Darling title this year - in 1996 it was NZF, 1999 the Greens, 2002 United. To date the Maori Party has been getting a lot of media coverage and little criticism in the MSM...

AL said...

I'd say Destiny will get 3-4%. Might make the threshold if they can pull in wider range of Christian voters. May be hard to poll these guys accurately because their followers are from very specific groups of people - Christian Polynesians living in Manukau City for example. Polling companies intentionally select interviewees based on census data, and at sample sizes of 1000 that doesn't give much room for error when assessing the popularity of smaller parties.

If they don't get in Parliament this term, they will the next. Evangelist Christian groups in New Zealand have been organising themselves mass-media outlets, culture festivals, youth programmes etc for the last 15 years. The owners of Radio Rhema even started an international group to help found Christian radio in other countries. They are very experienced at fighting an uphill battle against mainstream kiwi culture.

In terms of polling, Act has similar problems to the other marginal 5% parties. Small sample size, census-controlled sampling methodology, reliance on weeknight home phone calls makes the polls inaccurate for marginal parties. As simple as that really.

The other parties are irrelevant, in terms of upcoming election prospects and future growth.